Politics for the Non-Political, Vol. 3: Good Luck, Democrats
As a companion post to my summarizing of the troubles (and possible initial solutions) for the GOP (and Conservatives) in the next few election cycles, I would like to address the other side of the equation. Namely, the upcoming electoral troubles for the Democrats.
POLITICS FOR THE NON-POLITICAL Disclaimer:
The author will be offering his opinions on these matters. Anyone who says they can discuss politics or civics without any kind of personal bias or preference showing is lying to you.
Yes, Obama’s victory is a double-edged sword for Democrats.
They bet the farm on Obama and won a narrow popular vote victory… but at what cost?
First, much has been said about the rising numbers of minority voters. While this is true, they are still (obviously) a minority of the electorate.
WARNING – MATH AND NUMBER LADEN POST AHEAD. CONTINUE READING AT THE RISK OF YOUR OWN HEADACHE
WARNING 2 – MATH BELOW BEING PERFORMED BY A DUDE WITH A DEGREE IN MUSICAL THEATRE, ACCEPT RESULTS AT YOUR OWN RISK
Consider this voter breakdown from the exit polls:
Other = 5%
Hispanic = 10%
Black = 13%
White = 72%
Now, the votes are still being counted (absentee, provisional, etc), so we don’t have total numbers yet (expecting those total numbers to be reported by Thanksgiving)… but let’s assume that we matched or even slightly exceeded 2008 total turnout (which is likely, as evidenced by the hours long lines in many parts of the country).
2008’s total was 131,240,456 votes. For a nice even starting point, let’s assume 2012 vote total to be 132,000,000.
That would put the estimated number of votes per group as follows:
Other = 6,600,000
Hispanic = 13,200,000
Black = 17,160,000
White = 95,040,000
If a candidate had won 100% of the entire non-white vote, he/she would start with 36,960,000 votes. They would then need to capture just over 22% of the white vote in order to eke out a popular vote win.
Let’s now put the numbers in the context of the actual vote breakdown of 2012 (rounded for simplicity).
~70% of “Other” –~4,620,000
~70% of “Hispanic”–~9,240,000
~95% of “Black”–~16,302,000
~40% of ‘White”–~38,016,000
~30% of “Other” –~1,980,000
~30% of “Hispanic”–~3,960,000
~5% of “Black”–~858,000
~60% of ‘White”–~57,024,000
So, in my simplified little vote counting experiment, total numbers for each candidate will shake out as follows:
Obama – 68,178,000 – 51.65%
Romney – 63,822,000 – 48.35%
Now it’s time to play “What If”.
Obama seems to have won the popular vote by enjoying wide enough margins among Minority groups to counteract his loss of the sizable majority portion of the electorate, namely Whitey.
For policy reasons, I will offer the prediction that the Democrats are probably looking at a 40/60 loss of the White vote for the foreseeable future.
But… what if the GOP could break the Democrat’s stranglehold on the Minority vote?
What if, the GOP could bring the split among “Others” and “Hispanics” to parity with how the White vote splits… and even bring the Black vote just slightly more reflective of the nation as a whole?
What if this:
Other = 70/30
Hispanic = 70/30
Black = 95/5
White = 40/60
Went to this:
Other = 60/40
Hispanic = 60/40
Black = 80/20
White = 40/60
Then the popular vote total (and most likely the Electoral vote) flip-flops.
Obama – 63,624,000 – 48.2%
Romney –68,376,000– 51.8%
In other words, the Democrat could still carry the majority of the Minority vote and lose the election.
Those facts should form the strategic basis for the GOP’s next few years.
- They (GOP) don’t have to increase their support among White folks… just maintain it
- They (GOP) don’t have to win a majority of the minority vote, just pick off enough Democratic votes to allow minorities to operate as individuals rather than as singular voting blocs
For the Democrats to continue winning, they need minorities to not think for themselves. Democrats need Identity Politics to survive.
The GOP is poised to win the messaging war here, because they are already the party of individual Liberty. Even a small (10%) gain in minority communities will be enough to flip the tables on the Democrats.
Just for fun, let’s break it down one further level.
In order to win in 2016, the GOP needs to keep all it’s current votes and convince the following numbers of people to vote for Freedom and Liberty over Democratic Tyranny:
That’s a total of 4,554,000 people to convince. Let’s get to it!
The other problem for the Democrats I would like to address are their 2016 prospects for a candidate.
The frontrunners (yes, it’s early, but still) are Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden.
Clinton will be 69 years old in 2016 and Biden will be 74.
On the other hand, the GOP has a crop of youngsters like Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, etc that will rise to the top of the potential pack.
In other words, it is highly likely that in 2016, the Democrats will be the only ones fielding an Old, Rich, White person as their candidate.
Let’s see how far that gets them 😉
THE OBAMA WRECOVERY
Does anyone seriously think that Obama’s policies will improve the country?
Over the past four years, the Democrat’s policies have done little to lift us out of recession. We’ve had the most ridiculously weak ‘recovery’ since the Great Depression.
During his first two years in office, President Obama’s party also had complete control of Congress. The Democrats were large and in charge and what exactly did they accomplish? Only enough bad policy and inaction to deserve the ‘shellacking’ they received in the 2010 House elections.
President Obama’s bold plans for his second term were Kinko’d out right before the election and basically consisted of shiny pictures and promises of more Hope, and I guess some Change too.
Based on his first term, we can extrapolate that Obama’s final term as President will consist of:
- more power consolidation to the Executive Branch
- more disdain for the rule of law and the Constitutional operation of government
- more attempts to pay off the various lobby groups who believe the President owes them something (Unions, militant homosexuals, Eco-terrorists, Russia, China, etc.)
- more overreaching efforts to fundamentally transform this country into Post-Modern Europe-lite.
What I am suggesting is that if his policies don’t destroy the nation, they will in the very least, destroy the Democratic Party.
Based on my calculations, I give it a 73.6% chance that 2016 will be the GOP’s turn for a ‘2008’. (And the day before the 2016 election, I am sure to bump that up to a 92% chance). See, Mr. Nate Silver… I can use an excel spreadsheet too!! 😉