How Obama Lost the 2012 Election
The political prediction game is famously fraught with peril (see below)…
We will have a close election in November, that much is a certainty. But I will go out on the thinnest of limbs and assert that President Barack H. Obama will not be re-elected. It is possible that on the day after the election, a victorious Pres. Obama will print out this blog and pose like this:
BUT… I don’t think so. Instead of simply stating the reasons I don’t think he will win, I am going to attempt to offer some post-election analysis at this pre-pre-pre-pre-election time. (I would say, “famous last words”, but I would venture no one has ever said exactly that before.) Instead of the obvious reasons (the still-stalling economy, Obamacare, the general Obama leftist silliness, etc), I would also like to focus on the not so obvious reasons. Mostly, I would like to emphasize Obama’e Re-election Campaign.
It’s a rule of political thumb… er maybe a political rule of thumb… that incumbents are favored to win. This is even more true in modern times. Even incumbents facing a divided electorate (like President GWB in 2004) will more often than not win re-election. So, even though he has further divided the country with nonsensical programs like Obamacare and the ineffectual Stimulus Packages he pushed, Obama is still favored to win.
To me then, it comes down to the respective campaigns. Obama’s Re-Election Campaign is snatching Defeat out of the Jaws of Victory. I believe there are two primary Obama campaign flaws that will result in Mitt Romney’s victory in November:
1) They are entirely out of touch with reality
2) They heavily underestimated the campaign of Mitt Romney
So first, Obama’s campaign is largely operating as though they are in Bizzarro World. Weekly, if not daily, they will do or say something to which the only intelligent response is:
For those who follow politics, this is a shocking meltdown. After all, Obama’s 2008 campaign was largely seen as political genius. The folks who ran the campaign were hailed as inventors of a whole new level of successful politicking. Now that we have seen them in action in 2012 (…well, actually, Obama’s campaign has never truly stopped, but that’s another story…) it seems that the emperor has no clothes (so, please, for the love of all that is holy, someone give Axelrod a robe or something!!!) Hindsight seems to indicate that Obama’s 2008 Campaign only looked so mah-velous because it was compared to the way Steve “Sucky” Schmidt ran McCain’s campaign (into the ground).
The astounding ineptitude of Obama’s re-election campaign has my inner Ackbar bellowing: “It’sh a Trap!!” But more and more, I am beginning to believe that yes, Team Obama really just is that moronic.
The latest example of the inept crapfest that is Obama’s Re-election Campaign came from The One himself in a Very Special Episode of Media Hearts Obama yesterday. Obama said:
“The private sector is doing fine. Where we’re seeing weaknesses in our economy have to do with state and local government — oftentimes, cuts initiated by governors or mayors who are not getting the kind of help that they have in the past from the federal government…”
To fairly paraphrase: businesses are doing just peachy, there are plenty of jobs out there in the private sector. But you know, I’ve got a fevah, and the only prescription is Bigger Government!
To say that this is tone deaf is an understatement. The creepy thing is, he and his worshippers seem to actually believe it. This complete lack of objective common sense has come to characterize everything the President and his team puts out. (And don’t even get me started on AG Eric Holder saying that in the Justice Department e-mails, the phrase “Fast and Furious” does not actually refer to the program “Fast and Furious”, but to another program…that um… has a different name. It was Holder’s “it depends on what the definition of “is” is moment.)
The complete idiocy of Team Obama’s message is proven by the number of his “surrogates” who keep going ‘off-message’. Bill Clinton, Ed Rendell, Cory Booker…the list goes on (and will continue to grow). All these people came out saying things that effectively undermine the Obama campaign. And while Obamaniacs and the Mainstream Media (but I repeat myself) are trying to focus on what kind of hidden agendas of these guys must have, they fail to see the real issue. The problem is not that Obama’s surrogates are going ‘off-message’, the problem is that the message itself is complete horsepoop.
There is only one real explanation I can come up with as to why Obama’s Campaign is so completely out-of-touch with common people (and reality). Quite simply, Obama’s team (and likely O himself) have grown drunk with power and that has made them all delusional (it’s certifiable).
So, the first problem with his re-election campaign is something that neither Obama nor his underlings can help. Namely, they are all nuts. But, the second main problem is something that is completely their fault.
They underestimated their opponent.
Mitt Romney wants to be President. Badly.
He and his team were prepared for everything Team Obama has thrown at them. They’ve not only been able to deflect all attacks, but have been wildly successful at re-directing them right back at Obama. In effect, every salvo from Team O has ended up blowing up in their faces: The War on Women, Bain Capital, etc etc etc.
It seems evident that Obama’s Campaign thought it was going to cruise to an easy victory. They got cocky and lazy and then it became too late for them to recover. To say they were caught off-guard would be like saying that Bill Clinton has a slight ego. Obama’s team is just simply outclassed, outmatched, and outgunned when it comes to Romney and the team he has put together. Team O brought Lattes to a gun fight.
All other things being equal, Obama should have pulled out a squeaker of an Electoral win. He is going to lose the popular vote either way. But I know am convinced that he won’t reach the magic 270 he needs to defeat Romney. 2012 will bring us a President Mitt Romney and a shell-shocked Team Obama. The sad part is, they won’t even realize how epic was their failure. Poor, pathetic Hipsters. I almost feel sorry for their ignorance. Almost.